Subject: ON ELECTION DAY 2004 : FROM THE
CENTER FOR THE ADVANCED STUDY
OF AMERICAN INSTITUTIONS AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS,
2 November 2004
"Election Day" in the USA
Dear Colleagues and Friends of CEIMSA,
On this historic date, the day of the 2004 national elections, CEIMSA is sending out a series of recently received mail, which speaks to the theme of a long-term political struggle ahead for control of American foreign and domestic policy making. To paraphrase the infamous statement attributed years ago to Henry Kissinger, who was quoted as saying, "Oil is too important to be left to the control of Arabs !" we might say: "American elections are too important to left to the control of
In this spirit, we at CEIMSA share with you the following communications :
In item A. is a petition from our associate research director, Professor Jean Bricmont, organizing against the continuation of
Item B. is an article sent to us by another CEIMSA research director, Professor Richard Du Boff, again on the
In Item C. we have a communication from Ms. Kathleen Ross-Allee, of Hollywood, California, reminding us of the implicit lesson expressed in Dustin Hoffman's poignant film, "The Tail Wags the Dog," which was aired last night on French television; namely, that U.S. political parties are arenas of struggle for reforms and not social remedies themselves.
And in item D. Ms. Joanna Learner --an artist from Battle Creek, Michigan whose pacifist paintings were displayed last spring on the University of Grenoble campus during CEIMSA's 3rd International Conference which featured Jim Hightower, author of Ces truands qui nous gouvernent (Grenoble, 2004)-- has sent us a reference to important information on the current coalition-building process that is going on, and promises to continue after these elections, in the United States between traditional conservative groups and progressive groups, all of which are profoundly disturbed by the neo-conservative thrust to assume control over America's political economy.
Francis McCollum Feeley
Professor of American Studies
Director of Research
from Professor Jean Bricmont :
Subject: Fwd: 100.000 IRAQI DEATHS ! WORLD WIDE PETITION AGAINST THE ESCALATION !
hope you are well (and survive in
here is more info for you to distribute, if you want.
World Wide Petition Against the Escalation in Iraq, an initiative of the Brussells tribunal endorsed by the World Tribunal on Iraq
Prof. Jean Bricmont, a Belgian scientist, specialist in theoretical physics, and author on politics, who was member of the prosecution at the BRussells Tribunal, has written a short but strong statement "Stop the escalation" (see the text after this message, in English and French). It has been signed already by several authors and our organisations (see underneath).
We feel that we can't wait any longer to do something. We hope that you and/or your organisation will sign this letter, giving the call of prof Bricmont the resonance it deserves and he aimed at in writing it.
Now, on the evening of 28th of October 2004, that we know from an article in the Lancet, based on a survey by
We hope you join us in our outcry over the ongoing massacres by signing Bricmont's warning against the escalation.
Yours in the struggle for peace
Lieven De Cauter, Dirk Adriaensens, Hana Al Bayaty and Patrick Deboosere, on behalf of the BRussells Tribunal committee.(see
This letter is being distributed with full support of the the World Tribunal on Iraq (see www.worldtribunal.org) of which the BRussells
tribunal Committee is part.
If you want to sign, PLEASE REPLY WITH I SIGN TO: Info@Brusselstribunal.org. If possible add profession and locality.
STOP THE ESCALATION
"Excluding information from Falluja, a Lancet report of october 29 estimates that 100,000 more Iraqis died than would have been expected had the invasion not occurred. Eighty-four percent of the deaths were reported to be caused by the actions of Coalition forces and 95 percent of those deaths were due to air strikes and artillery."(Reuters, octobre 28.2004))
Far from being over, the war in
As a result, one must seriously anticipate a military escalation after the elections -- immediately in case Bush is returned
to office, perhaps more gradually should Kerry win. But the Democratic candidate has no more intention than Bush of withdrawing from
We demand that the
necessary conclusions as to the unacceptable nature of preventive war. It is an illusion to ask that the
Meanwhile, we affirm that we shall oppose by all peaceful and legal methods every attempt to crush the Iraqi resistance by a
military escalation such as was attempted during the Vietnam war. We call on all governments to grant asylum to American military personnel refusing to serve in
"Excluding information from Falluja, a Lancet report of october 29 estimates that 100,000 more Iraqis died than would have been expected had the invasion not occurred. Eighty-four percent of the deaths were reported to be caused by the actions of Coalition forces and 95 percent of those deaths were due to air strikes and artillery."(Reuters,
Loin d être finie, la guerre en Irak ne fait que commencer. Les États-Unis ne semblent pas arriver à vaincre la résistance irakienne
avec les moyens qu ils utilisent. Mais ils ne peuvent pas non plus reculer: l arrogance même avec laquelle la guerre a été déclarée et menée fait en sorte que tout leur prestige est en jeu en Irak et, avec lui, des décennies d efforts visant à la domination du monde. L enjeu pour eux est encore plus considérable que lors de la guerre du Viêt-Nam. Les États-Unis ne peuvent quitter l Irak qu en laissant derrière eux un gouvernement ami, mais ils n ont aujourd hui que très peu d amis dans cette partie du monde et aucune élection démocratique ne pourra produire un tel gouvernement.
Par conséquent, il faut sérieusement s attendre à une escalade militaire après les élections. Immédiatement si Bush est élu, plus
lentement peut-être si c est Kerry. Mais celui-ci n a, pas plus que Bush, la volonté de se retirer d Irak. Ils chercheront à vaincre la
résistance par tous les moyens. On tente déjà de démoniser celle-ci dans l opinion publique mondiale en l associant à des enlèvements et des assassinats condamnés par la quasi-totalité des organisations politiques du monde arabe.
Nous demandons que les États-Unis fassent preuve de réalisme, retirent leurs troupes d Irak sans condition, et en tirent les conclusions qui s imposent concernant le caractère inaceptable des guerres préventives. Il est illusoire de demander que leurs forces armées restent jusqu à ce que l Irak soit pacifié ou stabilisé, parce que leur présence est tellement détestée qu elle constitue le principal obstacle à toute pacification. En attendant, nous affirmons que nous nous opposerons par tous les moyens pacifiques et légaux à toute tentative d écraser la résistance irakienne par une escalade militaire, comme cela a été tenté lors de la guerre du Viêt-Nam. Nous demandons que tous les gouvernements accordent l asile politique aux déserteurs américains. Nous nous efforcerons de diffuser toutes les informations permettant de contrer la propagande de guerre et nous tenterons de mobiliser l opinion publique mondiale, comme en 2002, afin d exiger que les États-Unis renoncent à chercher une solution militaire à la situation en Irak.
Jean Bricmont, prof. of theoretical physics and political publicist, writer of this petition, Belgium, The BRussels Tribunal Committee, The World tribunal on Iraq Committee
Karen Parker, attorney, USA
Haifa Zangana, iraqi novelist and journalist, U.K.
Abdul-Ila Albayaty, Iraqi political refugee, France
Amy Bartholomew, prof. of political sciences, USA
Erik Swyngedouw, prof of social geography, Oxford
Lieven De Cauter, philosopher, Belgium
Patrick De Boosere, demographer, Belgium
Hana Al Bayaty, documentarist, France
Dirk Adriaensens, sos Irak, Belgium
and many others to come....
If you want to sign, PLEASE REPLY WITH I SIGN TO: Info@Brusselstribunal.org. If possible add profession and locality
----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --
100,000 Iraqi Deaths
by EMMA ROSS, AP Medical Writer
LONDON - A survey of deaths in Iraqi households estimates that as
many as 100,000 more people may have died throughout the country in
the 18 months after the U.S. invasion than would be expected based on
the death rate before the war.
There is no official figure for the number of Iraqis killed since the
conflict began, but some non-governmental estimates range from 10,000
to 30,000. As of Wednesday, 1,081
according to the U.S. Defense Department.
The scientists who wrote the report concede that the data they based
their projections on were of "limited precision," because the quality
of the information depends on the accuracy of the household interviews
used for the study. The interviewers were Iraqi, most of them doctors.
Designed and conducted by researchers at
study is being published Thursday on the Web site of The Lancet
The survey indicated violence accounted for most of the extra deaths
seen since the invasion, and air strikes from coalition forces caused
most of the violent deaths, the researchers wrote in the British-based
"Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women
and children," they said.
The report was released just days before the
election, and the lead researcher said he wanted it that way. The
Lancet routinely publishes papers on the Web before they appear in
print, particularly if it considers the findings of urgent public
Those reports then appear later in the print issue of the journal.
The journal's spokesmen said they were uncertain which print issue the
Iraqi report would appear in and said it was too late to make Friday's
issue, and possibly too late for the Nov. 5 edition.
Les Roberts, the lead researcher from Johns Hopkins, said the
article's timing was up to him.
"I emailed it in on Sept. 30 under the condition that it came out
before the election," Roberts told The Asocciated Press. "My motive in
doing that was not to skew the election. My motive was that if this
came out during the campaign, both candidates would be forced to
pledge to protect civilian lives in
"I was opposed to the war and I still think that the war was a bad
idea, but I think that our science has transcended our perspectives,"
Roberts said. "As an American, I am really, really sorry to be
Richard Peto, an expert on study methods who was not involved with
the research, said the approach the scientists took is a reasonable
one to investigate the
However, it's possible that they may have zoned in on hotspots that
might not be representative of the death toll across
a professor of medical statistics at
To conduct the survey, investigators visited 33 neighborhoods spread
evenly across the country in September, randomly selecting clusters of
30 households to sample. Of the 988 households visited, 808,
consisting of 7,868 people, agreed to participate in the survey. At
each one they asked how many people lived in the home and how many
births and deaths there had been since January 2002.
The scientists then compared death rates in the 15 months before the
invasion with those that occurred during the 18 months after the
attack and adjusted those numbers to account for the different time
Even though the sample size appears small, this type of survey is
considered accurate and acceptable by scientists and was used to
calculate war deaths in Kosovo in the late 1990s.
The investigators worked in teams of three. Five of the six Iraqi
interviewers were doctors and all six were fluent in English and
In the households reporting deaths, the person who died had to be
living there at the time of the death and for more than two months
before to be counted. In an attempt at firmer confirmation, the
interviewers asked for death certificates in 78 households and were
provided them 63 times.
There were 46 deaths in the surveyed households before the war. After
the invasion, there were 142 deaths. That is an increase from 5 deaths
per 1,000 people per year to 12.3 per 1,000 people per year more
However, more than a third of the post-invasion deaths were reported
in one cluster of households in the city Falluja, where fighting has
been most intense recently. Because the fighting was so severe there,
the numbers from that location may have exaggerated the overall
When the researchers recalculated the effect of the war without the
statistics from Falluja, the deaths end up at 7.9 per 1,000 people per
year still 1.5 times higher than before the war.
Even with Falluja factored out, the survey "indicates that the death
toll associated with the invasion and occupation of
likely than not about 100,000 people, and may be much higher," the
The most common causes of death before the invasion of
heart attacks, strokes and other chronic diseases. However, after the
invasion, violence was recorded as the primary cause of death and was
mainly attributed to coalition forces with about 95 percent of those
deaths caused by bombs or fire from helicopter gunships.
Violent deaths defined as those brought about by the intentional
act of others were reported in 15 of the 33 clusters. The chances of
a violent death were 58 times higher after the invasion than before
it, the researchers said.
Twelve of the 73 violent deaths were not attributed to coalition
forces. The researchers said 28 children were killed by coalition
forces in the survey households. Infant mortality rose from 29 deaths
per 1,000 live births before the war to 57 deaths per 1,000 afterward.
The researchers estimated the nationwide death toll due to the
conflict by multiplying the difference between the two death rates by
the estimated population of
war. The result was then multiplied by 18 months, the average period
between the invasion and the survey interviews.
"We estimate that there were 98,000 extra deaths during the postwar
period in the 97 percent of
except Falluja," the researchers said in the journal.
"This isn't about individual soldiers doing bad things. This appears
to be a problem with the approach to occupation in
The researchers called for further confirmation by an independent
body such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, or the
World Health Organization (news - web sites).
The study was funded by the Center for International Emergency
Disaster and Refugee Studies at
Small Arms Survey in
the Graduate Institute of International Studies in
from Professor Richard Du Boff
Subject: 100,000 Iraqis have died: where is our shame and rage?
The Guardian (
copyright November 1, 2004
The war on
More than 100,000 Iraqis have died - and where is our shame and rage?
The full scale of the human cost already paid for the war on
Subject: Even the conservative publications are endorsing Kerry.
Dear Francis Feeley, I just read an interesting article on The American Conservative website and I thought I'd tell you about it. Check it out! http://www.amconmag.com/2004_11_08/cover1.html
Civilian deaths have always been a tragic reality of modern war. But the conflict in
Reading accounts of the US-led invasion, one is struck by the constant, almost casual, reference to civilian deaths. Soldiers and marines speak of destroying hundreds, if not thousands, of vehicles that turned out to be crammed with civilians.
It is true that, with only a few exceptions, civilians who died as a result of ground combat were not deliberately targeted, but were caught up in the machinery of modern warfare. But when the same claim is made about civilians killed in aerial attacks (the Lancet study estimates that most of civilian deaths were the result of air attacks), the comparison quickly falls apart. Helicopter engagements apart, most aerial bombardment is deliberate and pre-planned. US and British military officials like to brag about the accuracy of the "precision" munitions used in these strikes, claiming this makes the kind of modern warfare practised by the coalition in
But there is nothing humanitarian about explosives once they detonate near civilians, or about a bomb guided to the wrong target. Dozens of civilians were killed during the vain effort to eliminate Saddam Hussein with "pinpoint" air strikes, and hundreds have perished in the campaign to eliminate alleged terrorist targets in Falluja. A "smart bomb" is only as good as the data used to direct it. And the abysmal quality of the intelligence used has made the smartest of bombs just as dumb and indiscriminate as those, for example, dropped during the second world war.
The fact that most bombing missions in
Meanwhile, the latest scandal over missing nuclear-related high explosives in
Of course, the
There are many culpable individuals and organisations history will hold to account for the war - from deceitful politicians and journalists to acquiescent military professionals and silent citizens of the world's democracies. As the evidence has piled up confirming what I and others had reported - that
But we all are moral cowards when it comes to
Scott Ritter was a senior UN weapons inspector in Iraq between 1991 and 1998 and is the author of Frontier Justice: Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Bushwhacking of America
from Kathleen Allee :
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004
Thank you, as always, for wonderful insights into the American nightmare that is our "upcoming election".
What I don't understand is why no one seems to understand that we are not electing a "President" we might be electing a "Republican party platform" and "a conservative Supreme Court" and a "right-wing" agenda.
If only for that, people on the left should be embracing Kerry and the Democratic "platform" which protects a woman's (all women) right to choose and supports inclusiveness for all race, religion and sexuality.
Once we get a Democratic agenda started then we can iron out and push further left wing ideals...but, this can NEVER happen when coming from the right. They are TOO far away. Let's at least bring some common sense back and understand that at least the Democratic party has some of the basic values that we on the left support. I know that they have become a little centrist...but, at least we might be able to work with them.
THEN, begin acting LOCALLY, use the power of your vote to bring progressives and independents and green party candidates into local government. Help them to build their resumes, support them and grow them to become the leaders of tomorrow.
Since when do we begin at the top? Let's lay some groundwork, eh?
from Joanna Learner :
Subject: Even the conservative publications are opposing Bush.
I just read an interesting article on The American Conservative website, and I thought I'd tell you about it. Check it out!